90 lines
3.3 KiB
R
90 lines
3.3 KiB
R
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# TODO: Add comment
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#
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# Author: francois
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###############################################################################
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## Importer les données dans un data.frame
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agents <- read.csv("agents.csv",sep=":")
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assures <- read.csv("assures.csv",sep=":")
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## Assurés plus uniformes: en prendre le 1/8, multiplier la fréquence par 8
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assures8 <- assures[seq(from=1,to=32669,by=8),]
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## Visualiser les agents
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plot(agents$Longitude_Agent,agents$Latitude_Agent,pch=6,col="red")
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## Visualiser les assurés
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points(assures$Longitude_Assure,assures$Latitude_Assure,pch=20)
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#fonction orage
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sim_dommages_orage <- function(assures)
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{
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franchise <- 0
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## Définir un orage
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sim_centre <- cbind(runif(1,range_longitude[1],range_longitude[2]),runif(1,range_latitude[1],range_latitude[2]))
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sim_taille <- cbind(rexp(1,.25),rexp(1,4))
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sim_angle <- runif(1,0,2*pi)
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sim_force <- sample(x=1:4,size=1,replace=TRUE,prob=c(.95,.03,.016,.004))
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if(sim_force==1)
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{
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ellipse1 <- ellipse_param(seq(0,2*pi,by=0.1),sim_centre[1],sim_centre[2],sim_taille[1],sim_taille[2],sim_angle)
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}
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if(sim_force==2)
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{
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ellipse2 <- ellipse_param(seq(0,2*pi,by=0.1),sim_centre[1],sim_centre[2],sim_taille[1],sim_taille[2],sim_angle)
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ellipse1 <- ellipse_param(seq(0,2*pi,by=0.1),sim_centre[1],sim_centre[2],2*sim_taille[1],2*sim_taille[2],sim_angle)
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}
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if(sim_force==3)
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{
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ellipse3 <- ellipse_param(seq(0,2*pi,by=0.1),sim_centre[1],sim_centre[2],sim_taille[1],sim_taille[2],sim_angle)
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ellipse2 <- ellipse_param(seq(0,2*pi,by=0.1),sim_centre[1],sim_centre[2],2*sim_taille[1],2*sim_taille[2],sim_angle)
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ellipse1 <- ellipse_param(seq(0,2*pi,by=0.1),sim_centre[1],sim_centre[2],3*sim_taille[1],3*sim_taille[2],sim_angle)
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}
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if(sim_force==4)
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{
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ellipse4 <- ellipse_param(seq(0,2*pi,by=0.1),sim_centre[1],sim_centre[2],sim_taille[1],sim_taille[2],sim_angle)
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ellipse3 <- ellipse_param(seq(0,2*pi,by=0.1),sim_centre[1],sim_centre[2],2*sim_taille[1],2*sim_taille[2],sim_angle)
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ellipse2 <- ellipse_param(seq(0,2*pi,by=0.1),sim_centre[1],sim_centre[2],3*sim_taille[1],3*sim_taille[2],sim_angle)
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ellipse1 <- ellipse_param(seq(0,2*pi,by=0.1),sim_centre[1],sim_centre[2],4*sim_taille[1],4*sim_taille[2],sim_angle)
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}
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## Définir le nombre d'assurés touchés
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touches1 <- FALSE
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touches2 <- FALSE
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touches3 <- FALSE
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touches4 <- FALSE
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touches1 <- dans_ellipse_param(assures$Longitude_Assure,assures$Latitude_Assure,ellipse1)
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if(sim_force>1)
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{
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touches2 <- dans_ellipse_param(assures$Longitude_Assure,assures$Latitude_Assure,ellipse2)
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if(sim_force>2)
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{
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touches3 <- dans_ellipse_param(assures$Longitude_Assure,assures$Latitude_Assure,ellipse3)
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if(sim_force>3)
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{
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touches4 <- dans_ellipse_param(assures$Longitude_Assure,assures$Latitude_Assure,ellipse4)
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}
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}
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}
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sum(max(rpareto(sum(touches1*!touches2),2,50)-franchise,0)) +
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sum(max(rpareto(sum(touches2*!touches3),2,1000)-franchise,0)) +
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sum(max(rpareto(sum(touches3*!touches4),2,20000)-franchise,0)) +
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sum(max(rpareto(sum(touches4),2,400000)-franchise,0))
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}
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set.seed(123)
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dommages <- replicate(1000,sim_dommages_orage(assures),simplify=TRUE)
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set.seed(123)
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dommages8 <- replicate(1000,sim_dommages_orage(assures8),simplify=TRUE)
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mean(dommages)
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var(dommages)
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quantile(dommages,c(.25,.5,.75,.9,.95,.99,.995))
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mean(dommages8)
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var(dommages8)
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quantile(dommages8,c(.25,.5,.75,.9,.95,.99,.995))
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